CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-26T19:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-26T19:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35988/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen as a faint front to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery, not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap. The potential source is a filament eruption near AR13938 starting around 2024-12-26T18:40Z. The filament stretches between -30 and -45 degrees longitude and 20 to 30 degrees north in latitude as seen in GOES SUVI 304. No clear arrival signature seen in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-30T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35990/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-26T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-35.0, Lat.=39.0, Speed=663.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-12-27T00:27Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-30T13:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T20:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T00:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-30T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241227_002700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.32 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-27T02:41Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy